The Black Cloud in Jobs Growth’s Silver Lining

In Analysis by Michael Rae

“Jobs Growth Defies Expectations” blares a WSJ headline on the front page of the paper’s first-weekend edition of February 2024.
The story by reporter Sam Goldfarb goes on to say that “hiring is booming, defying [economists’] expectations [that] the economy would cool after going gangbusters last year.” Last month’s employment numbers, showing a gain of 353,000 jobs economywide (revised upwards from an initial estimate of 216,000), kept the U.S. unemployment rate “steady at 3.7%,” were correlated with a 4.5% seasonally adjusted increase in (presumably nominal) wages of 4.5% year over year, and generally signal that the economy is on track to avoid a

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