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Base policies on reality, not deceit Climate frequently changes, and we must prepare to adapt.

In Analysis, From Other Parts by Michael Rae

Think Tank Brain

Dangerous manmade global cooling, global warming, climate change and extreme weather claims continue to justify what has become a $1.5-trillion-per-year industry: tens of billions spent annually on one-sided research and hundreds of billions sent to crony corporatists to subsidize replacing dependable, affordable carbon-based fuels with unreliable, expensive “renewable” energy.

Some 50 million acres of US crop and habitat land (equal to Wyoming) have been turned into corn-for-ethanol farms, biofuel plantations, and wind and solar installations. American forests are being converted to fuel for British power plants. Towering turbines butcher birds and bats, while Big Wind is exempted from endangered species rules that would cost fossil fuel companies billions in fines and send their execs to jail for such carnage.

Complete article at

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The Moral and Economic Poverty of the Lottery The allure of life changing money!

In Analysis, From Other Parts by Michael Rae

January 19, 2016
by Jordan Ballor

The nationwide furor has died down a bit after the $1.586 billion Powerball lottery jackpot was split three ways last Wednesday. This week’s $50 million jackpot may seem rather paltry after the record-setting prize, but the allure of life-changing money will continue to attract players from around the country. While lottery commissions promote their schemes as good for the public as well as the individual players, lotteries are actually mechanisms to impoverish, both morally and economically, the populace. Far from a force for good, lotteries are a danger to society. Read the entire article here

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Fred Hoyle & Chandra Wickramasinghe Vindicated CO2 Emissions May Delay Ice Age

In Research by Michael Rae

In a CCNet-Essay written nearly 20 years ago, Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe emphasised that mankind’s ability to inject greenhouse gases into the atmosphere was essential to “maintaining the present advantageous world climate, the opposite of what environmentalists are erroneously advocating.” A new study has vindicated their climate scepticism yet again. – See more at: The Global Warming Forum

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Daily Economic Data from Citizens Bank April 15 2016 China stocks enter bear market, Crude falls below $30.00 bbl, International sanctions on Iran could be lifted today, US retail sales fall, more data to come

In Miscellaneous by Michael Rae

Courtesy Citizens Bank Daily Update.

What is going on?!2016 has not started off on the right foot for the Canadian dollar, whatsoever.Crude has fallen below $30.00 bbl in both the Brent and West Texas which has pushed the CAD to fresh 2016 lows.Today marks a historic moment where the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) might be releasing a report, after a meeting in Vienna, on Iran’s compliance with the agreement to curb its nuclear program.This is particularly important in that Western sanctions against the country will be lifted.This will increase Iranian oil exports as international sanctions are lifted.Analystswith Commerzbank suggest we could be in for another leg lower in the commodity as the market gets used to more supply being added from Iran.This does not bode well for the CAD in the near term.Add to this, global banks and analysts are calling for a Bank of Canada rate cut, which sees a 50% chance priced in for the January 20th meeting next week.

In Asia, data wise, Aussie housing finance unexpectedly rose 1.8% in the month of November and investment in housing returned in November after a steep correction lower in October.The AUD didn’t benefit from the positive data however as it finds itself down 1.5% in sympathy with the other commodity currencies, and on the bleak outlook in China as its stock market officially fall into a bear market.In New Zealand, food price index fell further in December.Loan growth in China eased slightly in December.

In Europe, the Eurozone trade balance remains in a surplus as Italian inflation remains flat and Spain saw deflation in the month of December.In the UK, construction output fell a half of a percent in November as the market was expecting a 0.5% increase.

The real focus, data wise, today is on the slew of data out of the United States.Canada has no data to be released.We have already seen US PPI, in line with expectations and retail sales headline print in line with expectations of a slight contraction of 0.1%, but details within the retail sales report showed worse than expected outcomes.The retail control figure which was expected to increase 0.3% actually fell 0.3%.The retail control is a retail sales figure excluding building materials, motor vehicles and parts, gas stations and food services.This shows that perhaps the lower gas prices hasn’t translated into lower salesvalues, but the spill-over effect of lower gas prices is likely the culprit as it brings prices down for all goods.Later this morning we’ll see US industrial/manufacturing outputs, uMich consumer sentiment and finally business inventories


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Daily Economic News – from Citizens Bank – Jan 14th 2016 Bank of England leaves policy as is with an 8-1 vote again, Aussie employment report not as weak as expected, US initial claims shift higher, Canada new housing price index. remains steady

In Research by Michael Rae

The Bank of England has voted to keep its key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent as weak inflation has kept the pressure off policymakers to start raising borrowing costs.With a vote, once again, of 8-1 policymakers decided to keep rates steady at their January policy meeting, particularly since inflation remains at 0.1 percent, well below the Bank’s official 2 percent target.Britain’s growth is among the strongest of developed countries but since crude prices have fallen to near $30 a barrel, this would suggest that there will be very little inflation in the short term and harder times ahead for the country’s energy sector.
Australia’s employment report showed a fall of only 1k jobs, this was better than the 12.5k job shedding that the market had expected.Full-time employment saw gains of 17.6k and positive revisions to last month’s solid print.The participation rate fell (65.1% vs. 65.3% prior), however, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 5.8%.The market had expected a slight increase in the unemployment rate and only a one tick fall in the participation rate.Foreign direct investment in China printed a 6.4%, it’s lowest pace of growth since the end of 2014.
German wholesale prices fell in December, down 1.0% year over year.This while the full year German GDP rose a tick to 1.7%.The market had expected it to remain at 1.6%.This while Italian industrial output fell 0.5% in November, dragging the year over year print down to 0.9%, where 2.5% had been expected.
In North America this morning, we see US initial jobless claims increase to 284k, dragging the 4 week average up to 278.75k from 275.75k.Continued claims also climb higher to 2.263M up from 2.234M, the market had been expected a fall to 2.215M.US Import prices in the month of December fell 1.2%, less than expected fall of 1.4%, while export prices fell further than the 0.5% expected with a 1.1% print.Negative revisions were seen to the November figures as well.
North of the border, we see new housing price index print in-line with market expectations at 0.2%.CAD subject to volatility in crude prices and yesterday’s stock market rout, saw fresh highs made vs. the USD. This morning we find crude up 2.25% to start, pushing the CAD higher.Stock futures pointing to positive opens also likely helping the sentiment, over-all, in the market…but if I recall, we did open positive yesterday as well!

Daily updates courtesy of Citizens Bank

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International Food Prices Down Global warming alarmists wrong again!

In Analysis, From Other Parts by Michael Rae

Despite dire predictions of famine caused by the effects of global warming, for the fourth year in a row international food prices dipped by 19 per cent in the last year, the fourth consecutive annual fall, due to substantial decline in dairy, sugar and veg oil prices according to the United Nations food agency.

The maximum fall was witnessed in dairy prices, which fell by 28.5 per cent compared to 2014, marking its lowest since 2009. It was followed by sugar prices, which were down by 21 from 2014 levels, as per the FAO price index.


Similarly vegetable oil prices also came down last year by 19 per cent in comparison to 2014 prices, while cereal prices fell by 15.4 per cent in 2015. The meat prices also came down by 15.1 per cent in the last year.

Abundant supplies in the face of a timid world demand and an appreciating US dollar are the main reasons for the general weakness that has dominated food prices in 2015, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said in its monthly food price index.

“Over the full year, the index has averaged 164.1 points, nearly 19 per cent less than in 2014, marking the fourth consecutive annual decline,” the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said.

The FAO food prices index averaged 154.1 points in December 2015, down 1.5 points (1 per cent) from its revised November value, with international prices of all the food commodities used in the calculation of the Index falling, except for sugar and oils.

FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices, weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004.

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Oil for the Ages Disruptive Innovation

In Analysis by Michael Rae

Thanks to the U.S.-led revolution in fracking, oil is abundant. It will be for decades, if not centuries, because there is shale everywhere in the world. And unlike the megaprojects that have dominated the oil industry over the past several decades, shale can be tapped by smaller companies with less capital.

Wind turbines and an oil well outside Sweetwater, Texas. Flickr user mwwile via Creative Commons

Wind turbines and an oil well outside Sweetwater, Texas. Flickr user mwwile via Creative Commons

The oil market, as OPEC has learned to its sorrow, is now much more difficult to control. This is capitalist creative destruction. But nowadays it happens on Internet-time, so it’s also “disruptive innovation.” Fracking is to the global oil industry what Uber is to taxi medallion owners: great for consumers who enjoy the sudden abundance, deadly for incumbents whose business models were built on exploiting scarcity. –Donald L. Luskin, The Wall Street Journal, 8 January 2016