With Super Tuesday tonight, the battle between the establishment and anti-establishment of the Republican and Democratic contests are coming to a head. On the Republican side, Donald Trump holds a strong position. Can Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio come up with some (surprise) wins to delay Trump’s increasingly likely victory? On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton looks to have rebound from an early scare in Iowa and New Hampshire with wins in Nevada and South Carolina. Will she run the table tonight or can Bernie Sanders post wins to keep his chances alive?
The Reuters/Ipsos poll collects 11,000 interviews a month from across the United States. While this does not give us enough interviews to regularly report out separate states, the multiple contests allow us to produce a “Super Tuesday states poll”. The numbers below are based on interviewing from January-February in all of the Super Tuesday states on aggregate. The voter pool has been adjusted based on the type of primary held in each state (open=partisans and independents vs. closed=partisans only). Furthermore, we present the findings from all eligible residents and those likely to vote in the primary. The rebased results show the vote so that it adds to 100% (removing people who say they would not vote).
Our polling indicates that across all the Super Tuesday states, Hillary Clinton is likely to see some considerable wins, with an overall margin above 20% versus Bernie Sanders.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump is likely to experience a closer contest, but should still come out ahead in most states, with a low double-digit lead over his next closest competitor (Ted Cruz).
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