Comment on Vital Facts About Covid-19 by Clint Hayes

It seems to me the number that should matter the most is the hospitalization rate, since the real danger is a medical system too overwhelmed to give proper care and thus driving up the mortality rate. This, of course, has been the horrible experience in Italy. But I’m having a heck of a time finding numbers for hospitalizations. A Wednesday weekly morbidity and mortality report from the CDC indicated 508 hospitalizations at the then-current count, which represented an 11+% hospitalization rate per confirmed cases. That accords with the low-end of a number of estimates, but is twice that of others.

Knowing that number matters hugely. A March report showed that there are some 560,000 acute care beds in the U.S., obviously dispersed in varying densities according to urban populations across the country, and some 200,000 ventilators available.

So to me those are the numbers we should be watching. But I’m having a heck of a time finding anyone reporting them.

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